Mispriced prediction markets

{
  "data": {
    "markets": [
      {
        "venue": "polymarket",
        "nativeMarketId": "4440715",
        "nativeEventId": null,
        "seriesTicker": null,
        "marketKey": "polymarket:4440715",
        "quotientMarketId": "4440715",
        "slug": "azo-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-09-22-2026-54pt98",
        "marketUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/azo-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-09-22-2026-54pt98",
        "sourceUrl": null,
        "broker_channels": [],
        "robinhood_category": null,
        "robinhood_url": null,
        "relationships": {
          "assets": [],
          "markets": [],
          "signals": [],
          "truncated": {
            "assets": false,
            "markets": false,
            "signals": false
          }
        },
        "question": "Will AutoZone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings?",
        "end_date": "2026-09-22T21:00:00Z",
        "quotient_odds": 0.891648592202452,
        "market_odds": 0.38,
        "venue_quote": {
          "schema_version": "1",
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "4440715",
          "yes_bid": null,
          "yes_ask": null,
          "yes_last": null,
          "selected_probability": 0.38,
          "quote_method": "midpoint",
          "venue_timestamp": null,
          "observed_at": "2026-09-11T06:14:58.632Z",
          "freshness": "verified"
        },
        "inDispute": false,
        "clarifications": null,
        "bluf": "AutoZone’s latest quarter beat consensus decisively, so GAAP EPS above $54.98 is likely with meaningful uncertainty.",
        "forecast": {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market": {
            "venue": "polymarket",
            "nativeMarketId": "4440715",
            "nativeEventId": null,
            "seriesTicker": null,
            "marketKey": "polymarket:4440715",
            "quotientMarketId": "4440715",
            "slug": "azo-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-09-22-2026-54pt98",
            "marketUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/azo-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-09-22-2026-54pt98",
            "sourceUrl": null,
            "broker_channels": [],
            "robinhood_category": null,
            "robinhood_url": null
          },
          "id": "e57c1860-4e0f-4ba3-9380-87de2f68f87a",
          "probability": 0.891648592202452,
          "created_at": "2026-09-10T18:00:13.670000000Z",
          "thesis": "AutoZone’s latest quarter beat consensus decisively, so GAAP EPS above $54.98 is likely with meaningful uncertainty.",
          "resolution_pathway": {
            "criteria": "As of market creation, AutoZone is estimated to release earnings on September 22, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for AutoZone's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $54.98 as of market creation. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if AutoZone reports GAAP EPS greater than $54.98 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to \"No.\" The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.\n\nIf AutoZone releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIf the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nNote: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).\nNote: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.\nNote: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.\nNote: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.\nNote: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.\nNote: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.\nNote: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.\n",
            "crux": "Whether fourth-quarter diluted GAAP EPS clears the narrow gap between current estimates and $54.98.",
            "deadline": "2026-09-22T21:00:00Z",
            "source": "https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AZO/earnings"
          },
          "relationships": {
            "assets": [],
            "markets": [
              {
                "relationship": "ON_MARKET",
                "direction": "outgoing",
                "via": "direct",
                "marketKey": "polymarket:4440715",
                "venue": "polymarket",
                "nativeMarketId": "4440715",
                "question": "Will AutoZone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings?"
              }
            ],
            "signals": [],
            "truncated": {
              "assets": false,
              "markets": false,
              "signals": false
            }
          }
        },
        "spread": 0.511648592202452,
        "forecast_status": {
          "state": "warning",
          "cents": -47,
          "adverse_move_pct": 55.3,
          "basis": "since_forecast",
          "price_source": "live"
        },
        "spread_direction": "q_higher"
      },
      {
        "venue": "polymarket",
        "nativeMarketId": "4218178",
        "nativeEventId": null,
        "seriesTicker": null,
        "marketKey": "polymarket:4218178",
        "quotientMarketId": "4218178",
        "slug": "will-abnb-reach-184-in-september-2026-from-september-4",
        "marketUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-abnb-hit-in-september-2026",
        "sourceUrl": null,
        "broker_channels": [],
        "robinhood_category": null,
        "robinhood_url": null,
        "relationships": {
          "assets": [
            {
              "relationship": "HAS_MARKET",
              "direction": "incoming",
              "via": "direct",
              "id": "d5f9c2b3-571a-44f2-99c5-ca316d5f1db3",
              "assetKey": "company:abnb",
              "name": "Airbnb",
              "ticker": "ABNB",
              "asset_type": "company"
            }
          ],
          "markets": [],
          "signals": [],
          "truncated": {
            "assets": false,
            "markets": false,
            "signals": false
          }
        },
        "question": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $184 in September?",
        "end_date": "2026-10-01T03:59:59.999Z",
        "quotient_odds": 0.10876430925652676,
        "market_odds": 0.525,
        "venue_quote": {
          "schema_version": "1",
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "4218178",
          "yes_bid": null,
          "yes_ask": null,
          "yes_last": null,
          "selected_probability": 0.525,
          "quote_method": "midpoint",
          "venue_timestamp": null,
          "observed_at": "2026-09-11T06:14:58.632Z",
          "freshness": "verified"
        },
        "inDispute": false,
        "clarifications": null,
        "bluf": "The controlling Pyth one-minute record remains unverified despite other feeds showing higher trades, so an Airbnb $184 September high is unlikely but still live.",
        "forecast": {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market": {
            "venue": "polymarket",
            "nativeMarketId": "4218178",
            "nativeEventId": null,
            "seriesTicker": null,
            "marketKey": "polymarket:4218178",
            "quotientMarketId": "4218178",
            "slug": "will-abnb-reach-184-in-september-2026-from-september-4",
            "marketUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-abnb-hit-in-september-2026",
            "sourceUrl": null,
            "broker_channels": [],
            "robinhood_category": null,
            "robinhood_url": null
          },
          "id": "32756f5e-7d25-4ba9-a214-d1effce02095",
          "probability": 0.10876430925652676,
          "created_at": "2026-09-11T05:18:53.905000000Z",
          "thesis": "The controlling Pyth one-minute record remains unverified despite other feeds showing higher trades, so an Airbnb $184 September high is unlikely but still live.",
          "resolution_pathway": {
            "criteria": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, at any point after market creation and during September 2026, any 1-minute candle for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) has a final \"High\" or \"Low\" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.\n\nPrices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.\n\nIn the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.\n\nThe target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) \"High\" and \"Low\" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.\n\nHistorical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the \"t=\" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD?t=1773432000)\n\nIf the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.",
            "crux": "Whether Pyth confirms a regular-session one-minute candle reaching at least $184 during September.",
            "deadline": "2026-10-01T03:59:59.999Z",
            "source": "https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD"
          },
          "relationships": {
            "assets": [
              {
                "relationship": "HAS_MARKET",
                "direction": "incoming",
                "via": "market",
                "id": "d5f9c2b3-571a-44f2-99c5-ca316d5f1db3",
                "assetKey": "company:abnb",
                "name": "Airbnb",
                "ticker": "ABNB",
                "asset_type": "company"
              }
            ],
            "markets": [
              {
                "relationship": "ON_MARKET",
                "direction": "outgoing",
                "via": "direct",
                "marketKey": "polymarket:4218178",
                "venue": "polymarket",
                "nativeMarketId": "4218178",
                "question": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $184 in September?"
              }
            ],
            "signals": [],
            "truncated": {
              "assets": false,
              "markets": false,
              "signals": false
            }
          }
        },
        "spread": 0.4162356907434733,
        "forecast_status": {
          "state": "warning",
          "cents": -40,
          "adverse_move_pct": 45.7,
          "basis": "since_forecast",
          "price_source": "live"
        },
        "spread_direction": "q_lower"
      },
      {
        "venue": "polymarket",
        "nativeMarketId": "4118937",
        "nativeEventId": null,
        "seriesTicker": null,
        "marketKey": "polymarket:4118937",
        "quotientMarketId": "4118937",
        "slug": "russia-ukraine-peace-talks-by-october-31-2026",
        "marketUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716",
        "sourceUrl": null,
        "broker_channels": [],
        "robinhood_category": null,
        "robinhood_url": null,
        "relationships": {
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          "markets": [],
          "signals": [],
          "truncated": {
            "assets": false,
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          }
        },
        "question": "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?",
        "end_date": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
        "quotient_odds": 0.8157061423691816,
        "market_odds": 0.465,
        "venue_quote": {
          "schema_version": "1",
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market_id": "4118937",
          "yes_bid": null,
          "yes_ask": null,
          "yes_last": null,
          "selected_probability": 0.465,
          "quote_method": "midpoint",
          "venue_timestamp": null,
          "observed_at": "2026-09-11T06:14:41.152Z",
          "freshness": "verified"
        },
        "inDispute": false,
        "clarifications": null,
        "bluf": "Ukraine is seeking a September trilateral meeting after US envoys engaged both governments, so Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31 are likely with meaningful uncertainty.",
        "forecast": {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "market": {
            "venue": "polymarket",
            "nativeMarketId": "4118937",
            "nativeEventId": null,
            "seriesTicker": null,
            "marketKey": "polymarket:4118937",
            "quotientMarketId": "4118937",
            "slug": "russia-ukraine-peace-talks-by-october-31-2026",
            "marketUrl": "https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716",
            "sourceUrl": null,
            "broker_channels": [],
            "robinhood_category": null,
            "robinhood_url": null
          },
          "id": "a064c790-0179-41c4-b80d-00fea844b4b0",
          "probability": 0.8157061423691816,
          "created_at": "2026-09-09T14:22:16.702000000Z",
          "thesis": "Ukraine is seeking a September trilateral meeting after US envoys engaged both governments, so Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31 are likely with meaningful uncertainty.",
          "resolution_pathway": {
            "criteria": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. \n\nMeetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar.\n\nBrief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.\n\nThe meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.",
            "crux": "The forecast turns on whether Moscow agrees to a venue and date while US mediation remains active.",
            "deadline": "2026-10-31T23:59:00Z",
            "source": ""
          },
          "relationships": {
            "assets": [],
            "markets": [
              {
                "relationship": "ON_MARKET",
                "direction": "outgoing",
                "via": "direct",
                "marketKey": "polymarket:4118937",
                "venue": "polymarket",
                "nativeMarketId": "4118937",
                "question": "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?"
              }
            ],
            "signals": [],
            "truncated": {
              "assets": false,
              "markets": false,
              "signals": false
            }
          }
        },
        "spread": 0.3507061423691816,
        "forecast_status": {
          "state": "caution",
          "cents": -14,
          "adverse_move_pct": 23.8,
          "basis": "since_forecast",
          "price_source": "live"
        },
        "spread_direction": "q_higher"
      }
    ],
    "count": 81
  },
  "h402": {
    "routeId": "predictions/mispriced-markets",
    "provider": "quotient",
    "selectedCandidateId": "predictions/mispriced-markets/quotient",
    "routing": "manual",
    "paidBy": "x402-exact"
  }
}